The Institute of Mathematics and its Applications

Scottish Branch

Evening lecture:

Mathematics and the Environment

“Towards Quantifying The Uncertainty About How Much Carbon Dioxide Is Absorbed By Vegetation”

Prof. Tony O’Hagan

Department of Probability and Statistics, Sheffield University

Tuesday 29^th April 2008, 6.30 p.m.

L831: Strathclyde University

An issue of great future importance is the role of vegetation in the carbon cycle, and its potential for moderating global warming. This talk concerns the extent to which vegetation in the UK is acting as a carbon sink or source. The specific example is the net uptake of CO2 by vegetation in England and Wales in 2000. The Sheffield Global Dynamic Vegetation Model has been used to construct an estimated figure, but this is subject to many uncertainties. We are unsure about various properties of the different vegetation classes, about key parameters of the soil, about what kind of vegetation is present in each location, and so on. This talk addresses the complex issues around how to quantify these uncertainties, and their impact on the estimated CO2 flux.

Non-IMA members welcome to attend.

Refreshments available from 6.00 pm