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DEALING WITH FUTURE UNCERTAINTY IN LONG-TERM TRANSPORT PLANNING: VISIONS & NARRATIVE MODELLING
David P. Watling & Paul M. Timms
Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK
The purpose of the paper is to propose a novel and relevant research area for the transport field, at which future mathematical efforts may be directed. The context of the work is that of planning transport systems over 20+ years ahead, particularly taking into account the need to make major step-changes in behaviour for reasons of sustainability/resilience. The paper has two parts. In the first part, the key element is the idea that the individual travellers in the system, unlike particles in a physical system, may adapt their ‘essential behaviour’ over time, and indeed will need to do so in order to achieve the step-changes required. In order to understand whether such changes are achievable, we introduce new concepts in our models, in particular: i) to move away from explanatory models based on only observable factors to consider the deep, causal, often unobservable factors that truly drive people and their attitudes; and ii) to consider planning agencies as endogenous actors in our transport system, who react continuously to the impacts of previously implemented policy measures. In the second part of the paper, we consider the pragmatic issue of how these approaches might actually be implemented in a planning process. We propose the use of a backcasting approach, with dynamic, qualitative ‘narratives’ constructed that lead to a given desirable future ‘vision’.
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