Programme
Monday 28 June 2004 |
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| 0930-1430 | Registration | |
| 1000-1230 |
Tutorial:Confrontation Analysis A.Tait (Idea Sciences, USA ) |
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| 1300-1400 | Lunch | |
Role of Analysis |
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| 1400-1445 |
Invited speaker: Role for Mathematics in Forecasting Decisions in Real Conflicts? K. Green (www.conflictforecasting.com) |
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| 1445-1515 | Confrontation Analysis: Prediction, Interpretation or Diagnosis? P. Bennett (Department of Health) |
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| 1515-1545 | Analytical Support to Policy Makers in a Messy World S. Lea (Dstl) |
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| 1545-1615 | Tea | |
| 1615-1645 | Operational Analysis in Support of Recent Military Operations G. Rose (Dstl) |
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| 1645-1730 | Invited speaker:
Measuring and Assessing International Conflicts and Their Consequences Michael Clarke (University of London) |
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| 1730-1800 |
Posters Seminar Room |
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| 1900- | Dinner | |
Tuesday 29 June 2004 |
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| 0900-0945 | Invited speaker: A Minimax Procedure for Negotiating
Multilateral Treaties (Presentation) Steve .J. Brams (Co-Authors Marc Kilgour and M. Remzi Sanver) |
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Strategic InteractionLecture theatre |
Social choiceSeminar Room |
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| 0945-1015 |
Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention H. Goldwood and C. Goodman |
A Poison Chalice?: Negotiating with Extremists D. Goodwin (Royal Military Academy) |
| 1015-1045 |
Estimating Force Requirements for Crisis Repsonse Operations R.K. Huber and S. Schafer (Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces) |
Modelling Conflict: Game Theory, Social
Choice Theory and Social Welfare Theory (Presentation) G. Burt (Open University) |
| 1045-1115 | Coffee | |
Simulation/Experimentation Lecture Theatre |
Civil Measures Seminar Room |
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| 1115-1145 | Analysing the Impact of Command Intent upon the Evolution of Operation R. Wilson (Dstl) |
Tales of the Unexpected: When do Economic Sanctions Work? J. Hovi and R. Huseby (Uni. of Oslo) |
| 1145-1215 | Historical Analysis for the Realistic
Representation on Time in Combat Simulations (Presentation) D. Tilley, D. Rowland and P. Pearce (Dstl) |
Win-Win Democratic Structures P. Emerson (The de Borda Institute) |
| 1215-1245 | Non-Instrumental Behaviour in
the Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma L. Helland and J. Hovi (Norwegian School of Management) |
The Role of the Electoral System in the Resolution of Ethnic Conflict D. Chapman (Democracy Design Forum) |
| 1300-1400 | Lunch | |
| 1400-1445 | Invited speaker: International Security After 9/11 P. Rogers (Dept of Peace Studies, University of Bradford) |
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The International SceneLecture Theatre |
Analytical DevelopmentsSeminar Room |
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| 1445-1515 | Drama Theory as the Behavioural Rationale in Agent-Based Models J.W. Bryant (Sheffield Hallam University) |
A Case of Confrontation: Insights from MCDA and Conflict Analysis F. Losa (Ufficio di statistica) |
| 1515-1545 | Contingent, Time-Dependent Conflict Resolution: Drama Theory in the Extensive
Form N. Howard (dramatec) |
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| 1545-1615 | Tea | |
| 1615-1645 | Multivariate Time Series Approaches to Analysing the Northern Irish Conflict: Lessons for Future Sub-State Conflict Control S. Wright and D. Webb (Leeds Metropolitan University) |
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| 1645-1715 | Historical Analysis of Conflict Termination A. Morley (Dstl) |
Optimal Enforcement and Adequate Penalties Marc Kilgour (Wilfrid Laurier Uni) |
| 1715-1800 | Invited speaker: Is World Multipolarity a Political Myth? V.A. Svetlov (Petersburg State Transport University) |
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| 1930-2000 | Reception: The Randolph Hotel, Oxford | |
| 2000- |
Dinner: The Randolph Hotel, Oxford Sponsored by Dstl After dinner speaker General Sir Rupert Smith Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Considered the consummate "soldier's soldier", he served in Northern Ireland as the General Officer Commanding from 1996-98, during a period that spanned ceasefire, peace negotiations and the Good Friday agreement. He is now actively engaged in the field of conflict research. |
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Wednesday 30 June 2004 |
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Military Networks |
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| 0900-0930 | Information Sharing
in Military Headquarters (Presentation) T.S. Gardener and J. Moffat (Dstl) |
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| 1000-1030 | Analysis of Command and
Control in Network Enabled Operations (Presentation) G. Enemo (Norwegian Defence Research Establishment) |
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| 1030-1100 | Coffee | |
Non-state Actors |
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| 1100-1130 | Kosovo Refugees on the
Macedonia Border: escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma (Presentation) L. Zeager and J.H.P. Williams (East Carolina University) |
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| 1130-1200 | Female Suicide Bombers, The Literary Turn and Chechnya C. Moore (Nottingham Trent University) |
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| 1200-1230 | Atmospheric dispersion modelling in support of civil
emergency operations (Abstract) (Presentation) R.D. Kingdon (Dstl) |
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Shared Understanding |
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| 1230-1300 | Emergent Co-Operation Over Common Pool Relations H. Miall (Lancaster University) |
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| 1300-1400 | Lunch | |
| 1400-1430 | Critical Memory Work and Conflict Transformation in Bosnia-Herzegovina R. Kelly (University of Bradford) |
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| 1430-1500 | Closing discussion J. Bryant (Chair) |
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